Rumors of War - King of the North

Putin: New Russian nukes are answer to U.S. leaving arms treaty - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday his country has developed supersonic nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in the world, and are 'invulnerable to enemy interception.' During his state of the union address to Russian lawmakers in Moscow, Putin said the weapons cannot be tracked by anti-missile systems. [...] The Russian president said the new nuclear weapons were successfully tested late last year -- and said tests are ongoing for underwater drones that can carry nuclear warheads. [...] Putin's address came less than three weeks before Russia's presidential election. He is an overwhelming favorite to win another term on March 18."

Comment: This was a brilliant campaign speech by a man who doesn't really need to campaign to win his election. How strange is that? Beneath the bluster is the reality that Russia and every other great power will continue to innovate in the area of arms and weapons. It's profitable and also great PR for the domestic audience.  Putin did a great job of spinning a narrative of Russia as a victim, as a righteous underdog, fighting back against America. This is a time-tested electoral strategy. When JFK ran against Nixon in 1960 he claimed there was a missile gap between the U.S. and Russia and that the Russians were winning the arms race. Kennedy knew it wasn't true, but voters ate it up.

Am I alarmed by these new claims by Putin about the power of Russian weapons? No. Cruise missiles are now considered old tech and everyone is innovating on the basic design and pushing the envelope on speed and stealth.  Underwater drones are indeed new-ish, but the real innovation will be deploying them in an active battlespace in a coordinated fashion, either independently or using swarm tactics, and of course, weaponizing them with explosives up to the nuclear level. As far as most analysts can tell, this capability has yet to be demonstrated by Russia. Underwater drones used in this manner may be new but the U.S. Navy has long had nuclear depth-charges for anti-submarine warfare, so again, not that new.

The real concern here is that the world is moving very quickly past the global war on terrorism and into a new phase of great power conflict. We have been lulled by history into a false sense of security, the notion that wars between countries with established armies and massive firepower is over.  It's not over.  We are now seeing the military establishments of Russia, the United States and China actively preparing for great power conflict.