Gog Alliance - King of the North

In Libyan war, Russian mercenaries add deadlier firepower and modern tactics
The Washington Post reports: "Hundreds of Russian mercenaries, many highly trained and well-armed, are fighting alongside renegade Libyan commander Khalifa Hifter as he seeks to oust the country’s United Nations-backed government, according to Libyan military commanders and fighters, as well as U.S. military and other Western officials. [...] the arrival of these mercenaries comes at a time when Russia has been expanding its military and diplomatic reach across the Middle East, Africa and beyond, enjoying greater clout in places such as Syria where the United States is disengaging."

Comment: This news report reminds us of the ongoing and past involvement of Russia in Northern Africa. It's worth noting that the prophetic Gog Alliance includes Libya and North Africa and so it's very important to note those ongoing links with Russia.  We expect they will grow stronger over time.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia preparing new ballistic missiles -- including 'Satan-2'
UPI reports: "The Russian military is actively preparing and testing ballistic missiles in an effort to modernize its weapons arsenal -- including one that was fired for the first time Wednesday. [...] Russia is also planning at least five tests next year for its new liquid-fueled Sarmat, or Satan-2, nuclear missile -- which is equipped with multiple hypersonic warheads to evade defense systems."

Comment: The U.S. and Russia together account for most of the nuclear weapons in the world. Sure, other countries have them, but they might have a few hundred nuclear weapons. The superpowers have thousands. More than enough to wipe out all life on Earth many times over.  So, do they need more? Probably not, but they are getting more. This report offers details on the new weapons systems that Russia is fielding as they continue the nuclear arms race many thought ended with the Cold War.

Gog Alliance

Turkey, Russia agree to terror-free zone in Syria - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Ankara and Moscow have reached a "historic" deal to create a terror-free zone in northern Syria, the Turkish government said Tuesday. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the deal after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia's coastal city of Sochi to go over Turkey's Operation Peace Spring, state-Run Anadolu reported."

Comment: It appears that Russia and Turkey have agreed on how best to carve up Syria. The pieces are in place for Ezekiel's first battle of Gog & Magog. Most impressive. Where is the U.S. in all of this?

Gog Alliance

Russia offers Turkey Su-57 after failed F-35 deal with U.S. - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is offering his military's new Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet to Turkey, since the nation is no longer allowed to buy the new U.S.-made F-35 Lightning II. Putin made the offer to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Tuesday at the MAKS-2019 International Air Show in Moscow."

Comment: It looks like the alliance is getting stronger. How much longer will Turkey remain in NATO?

War - Doomed Damascus

Airstrikes hit near Turkish convoy in Syria, raising tension
The AP reports: "Airstrikes targeted a Turkish army convoy inside a rebel-held part of northwestern Syria on Monday, killing three civilians and wounding 12 others, the Turkish Defense Ministry said. Syria, however, said the Turkish convoy was carrying ammunition to rebels who have lost ground this month amid a government offensive to retake their last stronghold in the country. The incident ratcheted up tensions in the region, currently ground zero in Syria’s long-running civil war in which Turkish, Russian, U.S. and Iranian interests are fighting."

Comment: I find it interesting that Syria has largely dropped off our radar and yet, as the report makes clear, it remains a battlefield in which the armies of multiple countries (including the U.S.) are currently fighting. Do the American people realize they have soldiers fighting in Syria or is that lost amid reporting about Trump's latest Tweets?

Gog Alliance

Iran announces upcoming joint military drills with Russia - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Iran and Russia will hold joint military drills in the Persian Gulf later this year as part of a classified agreement to expand cooperation between the two nations. Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi said Sunday the agreement with the Russian Defense Ministry was signed last week in Moscow, Iran's state-run PressTV reported."

Comment: According to this report, Russia and Iran have entered into a formal agreement for military cooperation, this is significant and very noteworthy. 

Rumors of War - King of the North

NATO gives Russia 5 weeks to destroy missiles violating INF Treaty
UPI reports: "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday gave Russia five weeks to destroy ground-launched missiles that violate a treaty with the United States banning certain short- and intermediate-range missiles. [...] He said if Russia doesn't comply with the warning, NATO's response will be 'defensive, measured and coordinated.' [...] 'There are no new U.S. missiles in Europe, but there are new Russian missiles in Europe,' he said in December. [...] In April, the Russian government said it severed contact with NATO. The relationship has been strained since Russia forcibly annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014. Tensions flared again last year when Russia captured Ukrainian soldiers and military ships in the Kerch Strait, a move Western governments said violated international law."

Comment: Russia is very good at spinning a counter-narrative to explain their actions. They say they are the aggrieved party, they are being merely defensive, reacting to actions from NATO and the United States. Yet the fact remains that NATO is a defensive alliance, it has not seized territory or expanded its arsenal, while Russia has done those things. Here we are in the 21st Century and European land has fallen to conquest and it is Russia that has done that, not NATO.  Crimea is now under Russian control and 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory is under Russian military occupation. If anything, the allied response to this territorial expansion in the heart of Europe has been extremely restrained, given the lessons of WWI and WWII. In fact, some might say that NATO has failed in performing its core mission of stopping Russian expansion. It is past time for NATO to assert itself.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia cuts off contact with NATO over worsening relations - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Russian government said Monday it's severed contact with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, halting a relationship that's been deteriorating for years. [...] The relationship has been strained since Russia forcibly annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014. Tensions flared again last year when Russia captured Ukrainian soldiers and military ships in the Kerch Strait, a move Western governments said violated international law."

Comment: This is the kind of thing that is usually below the radar, especially on days when major news events dominate the headlines. Still, it's the kind of thing we should pay attention to, the kind of thing that future historians may point to as a milestone on the path to war. 

Rumors of War - King of the North

There have been several reports of late about Russian activities all over the world (Africa and Venezuela, for example). Here is a report about Russian activities in the Arctic, from the AP:

Missile launchers ply icy roads and air defense systems point menacingly into the sky at this Arctic military outpost, a key vantage point for Russia to project its power over the resource-rich polar region. [...] Russia, however, has made reaffirming its presence in the Arctic a top goal, not the least because the region is believed to hold up to one-quarter of the Earth’s undiscovered oil and gas. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited estimates that put the value of Arctic mineral riches at $30 trillion. The move has alarmed Russia’s neighbors, analysts say.

Personally, I think the report is a bit sensational and off the mark. It seems designed to make the reader think Russia is doing something new or menacing when in reality, all they are really doing is refurbishing their existing bases in the Arctic. They are, after all, an Arctic power and member of the Arctic Council, so they are well within their rights. Although I do think it's important to keep watch on competing world powers, I don't believe in sensationalism and fear-mongering.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Intelligence report: Russia preparing to meddle in EU vote
UPI reports: "Russian government will try to meddle in the coming European Parliament elections and influence Western institutions like NATO, a new intelligence report said Tuesday. [...] 'Russia supports its allies through Russian-controlled media, organizes high-level meetings and visits that attract media attention, offers covert financial assistance if necessary, discredits opponents (by stealing and leaking internal information), intentionally spreads false information in social media, and so on.' [...] The report says President Vladimir Putin's government has also been preparing militarily for a possible conflict with NATO."

Comment: The resurgence of Russia is one of the most important events of the last decade, one we should continue to monitor very closely.  Russia is not a status quo power, they are a disgruntled power out to change the world system and are prepared to use all the weapons in their arsenal to do so. This is now the age of hybrid warfare and the battlefield is domestic politics, cyberwar, surveillance and social media manipulation. I think they took the old MTV ad to heart: rock the vote.  

King of the North - Gog Alliance

Turkey, Russia start joint patrol of Syrian rebel stronghold
UPI reports: "Turkey and Russia began joint patrols of Syria's Idlib province Friday, the last stronghold for Syrian rebels, in an agreement meant to protect more than 3 million civilians. [...] Russia, which supports the Syrian government, is expected to patrol the edge of the province. Turkey, which backs the Syrian rebels, will protect the negotiated demilitarized zone around the province."

Comment: The fact that the U.S. has left 200 soldiers in Syria does not take away from the fact that the big winners in Syria are Russia, Turkey and Iran.  The losers, it would seem, are the U.S., Israel and the Kurds. Its not a good situation and suggests increasing military tension along Israel's northern border.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Vladimir Putin threatens to target U.S. 'decision-making centers' if missiles deployed
UPI reports: "In his State of the Nation address, Putin threatened to target countries in Europe and the United States with new intermediate-range missiles if similar missiles are stationed against Russia in neighboring European nations. He said such a scenario would target U.S. decision-making centers. [...] The Trump administration announced this month an intention to withdraw from the INF treaty, saying Russia is not abiding by the agreement. Putin said Russia would do the same. The Cold War treaty was brokered in 1987 between former leaders Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev."

Comment: I'd like to think that the end of the INF treaty is an opportunity for all the nuclear powers to join in a comprehensive arms reduction treaty. Somehow, I don't think that is the way Russia and the U.S. view the situation. 

Gog Alliance - King of the North

Intelligence community raises alarm on Turkey
UPI reports: "It is uncertain how Trump will approach Turkey, a historic ally that has grown friendlier with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years. [...] The alliance between the United States and Turkey could fracture without a shared fear for the Soviet Union that bonded the two countries during the Cold War [...] Further endangering relations is Turkey's growing alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Turkey signed a deal with Russia to receive an S-400 missile defense system, which has prompted senators to try and prevent Turkey from receiving F-35 jets from the United States should it purchase the Russian missiles."

Comment: This editor continues to be shocked that we are living in a new normal in which Russian, Turkish and Iranian military forces are one border away from Israel.  This news report talks about the deteriorating relationship between Turkey and the U.S. and ignores what I think is the far more important development. The operational links required to manage troops on the ground are creating strong bonds between Russia, Turkey and Iran at every level, from troops on the ground to head of state, as they work to manage ongoing operations in a complex war zone. As this continues the West will have to wonder how much longer they can continue to consider Turkey a NATO member?

Wars & Rumors of War

US pulls out of Cold War-era nuclear treaty, blaming Russia - AP
The AP reports: "The United States announced Friday that it is pulling out of a landmark nuclear arms treaty with Russia, arguing that it should not be constrained by a deal Moscow is violating with “impunity” by deploying banned missiles. Democrats in Congress and some arms control advocates slammed the decision as opening the door to an arms race. [...] The Trump decision reflects his administration’s view that the arms treaty was an unacceptable obstacle to more forcefully confronting not only Russia but also China. China’s military has grown mightily since the treaty was signed, and the pact has prevented the U.S. from deploying weapons to counter those being developed in Beijing."

Comment: Well, there you go, the Cold War nuclear arms race is back on. The world has just become a much more dangerous place. 

King of the North - Gog Alliance

Russia, Turkey Mull Next Steps in War-Torn Syria - VOA
VOA News reports: "Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Wednesday to coordinate their moves in Syria as their governments bargain over zones of influence in the war-torn country. The leaders share strong opposition to the U.S. military presence in Syria, seeing it as an obstacle to their clout in the country. The Kremlin meeting marked their first encounter since U.S. President Donald Trump announced the pullout of American troops in a Dec. 19 tweet. [...] Putin emphasized Moscow's readiness to respect Turkey's interests, but encouraged it to talk to the Syrian government to help stabilize the border areas."

Israel: Advanced missile defense system successfully tested - The Washington Post: Israel said Tuesday that it has successfully tested the country’s advanced missile defense system capable of defending against long-range ballistic missile threats. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toured an Israeli aerospace facility following the test and leveled a thinly veiled warning at Iran, just days after Israel struck Iranian military targets in neighboring Syria. [...] The test came amid mounting tensions between Israel and Iran along its northern border with Syria. Israel is concerned about Iran establishing military bases in neighboring Syria as the eight-year civil war winds down."


Comment: Strange to think of Russia, Turkey and Iran carving up Syria like old colonial powers. The loser in all of this is Assad. Does he really think he "won" his civil war? And the U.S. pulling out, that was unexpected. The wild card remains Israel. Netanyahu has already stated on the record that Iran keep troops based permanently in Syria is a non-starter and Israel recently raised the public profile of their frequent military strikes at Iranian targets inside Syria. The message has been delivered. What happens next?

King of the North - Gog Alliance - Doomed Damascus

Putin Welcomes U.S. Withdrawal From Syria as ‘Correct’ - NYT
The New York Times reports: "President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Thursday hailed the decision by President Trump to withdraw United States forces from Syria, calling it “correct” because the American troops were not needed. [...] The decision has been criticized, even among Republicans, as abandoning Kurdish allies in the face of a hostile Turkey and a still dangerous Islamic State, as well as leaving Syria open territory for the geopolitical ambitions of Russia and Iran."

Comment: I will leave it for the partisans in the U.S. to debate if Trump's move is in the best interest of U.S. national security. For our part, I think it's very clear that this move will be in the interests of Russia, Iran and Turkey and a strategic challenge to Israel. For the BP community, anything that boosts the Gog Alliance at the expense of Israel is a significant development and one worth noting.

Rumors of War - King of the North

NATO accuses Russia of breaking nuclear treaty; Mike Pompeo threatens U.S. withdrawal UPI reports: "NATO leaders on Tuesday accused Russia of failing to abide by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, an agreement U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to withdraw the United States from unless Moscow complies. NATO foreign ministers, who met in Brussels, issued a statement condemning Russia for developing and fielding a missile system, a violation of the INF Treaty of 1987. The treaty banned all land-based cruise missiles with a range of between 310 miles and 3,417 miles."

Comment: You know, there are people who believe that there's never been a safer time to be alive.  It's a nice idea, but if we are on the verge of another nuclear arms race, they may want to rethink that notion.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia delivers missile systems to Crimea over Ukrainian objections - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Kremlin's plans to deploy a fourth surface-to-air missile battalion in Crimea would endanger all countries in the Black Sea region, a Ukrainian official warned Thursday. Russia's Black Sea Fleet said the air defense missile systems are ready for combat in Crimea near the Ukraine border, Moscow's state-run news agency reported. [...] Moscow forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine in a highly controversial move in 2014, which remains a source of tension between the Kremlin and Ukrainian and Western governments."

Comment: When Hitler started his conquests in WWII he began with relatively small countries that had large German-speaking populations. He said he was simply bringing these German-speaking areas back into Germany. Putin used the same excuse when he annexed Crimea from Ukraine, reminding everyone that Crimea had been part of Russia many years ago and a great many Russian-speaking people still live there...just bringing them back into mother Russia. If the Allies had learned the lesson of history then NATO would have immediately challenged this attempt to redraw the borders of Europe by force. Instead, the Western allies imposed economic sanctions on Russia. It does not appear that sanctions are a deterrent to Putin's Russia. We can conclude with absolute certainty that this will not end well. Like other leaders in history bent on conquest, Putin will not stop until he is made to stop.

King of the North

Putin: Russia 'ahead of competition' with latest weapons - AP
The AP reports: "The Russian leader also warned that new hypersonic missiles his country developed give it a military edge. [...] Russia already has deployed the Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Putin said that another new weapon, the Avangard, is set to enter service in the next few months. Earlier this year, Putin said the Avangard has an intercontinental range and can fly in the atmosphere at a speed 20 times the speed of sound, making it capable of piercing any missile defense system. His blunt talk Thursday comes as Russia-West relations remain frosty over the Ukrainian crisis, the war in Syria and the allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential vote."

Comment: Hypersonic missiles are an interesting development as they would seem to undermine existing countermeasures. I need to read more about this.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia to provide Syria with new missile system, over Israeli opposition
UPI reports: "Russia will supply Syria with an S-300 surface-to-air missile system within two weeks, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Monday. The announcement came after Syria, which now uses the Soviet-era S-200 system, inadvertently shot down a Russian military plane on Sept. 17. All 15 people aboard were killed. [...] Shoigu also said Russia will begin suppressing communications systems of military aircraft 'attacking objects on Syrian territory.' While the reference to Israeli combat planes is evident, it could also include planes of a U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in Syria."

Russia blames Israel for downed plane because misleading on airstrikes - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Russia said Sunday the Israeli government is solely to blame for the downing of one of its aircraft by Syria last week because it deliberately was misleading on planned airstrikes. [...] A Russian Il-20 military aircraft crashed near Syria on Sept. 17, killing 15 Russian airmen when the airplane was mistakenly shot down by Syria's air defenses soon after an Israeli strike near the coastal Syrian city of Latakia."

Comment: Have you been wondering how long the friendly relationship between Russia and Israel will last? There are now evident strains in the relationship.