War

Saudi Arabia cuts oil output after Houthi drone attack; Pompeo blames Iran - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Saudi Arabia cut its oil output in half Saturday after Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a drone attack on two oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. A Yemeni military spokesman told the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency it was a "large-scale" attack with 10 drones that hit its targeted Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. [...] Though the rebels claimed responsibility, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo placed the blame squarely on Iran. "

Comment: The proxy war for regional dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran is getting serious. Score one for Iran. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Rouhani: Iran will further pull out of nuclear deal Thursday unless Europe buys Persian oil - UPI.com
 UPI reports: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tuesday that if European nation signatories to an Obama-era multinational nuclear deal don't agree by Thursday to buy Persian oil, Iran would further separate itself from commitments aimed at preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon."

Comment: The situation with Iran  continues to remain on a slow boil even as if fades from the mainstream news radar.

Gog Alliance

Iran announces upcoming joint military drills with Russia - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Iran and Russia will hold joint military drills in the Persian Gulf later this year as part of a classified agreement to expand cooperation between the two nations. Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi said Sunday the agreement with the Russian Defense Ministry was signed last week in Moscow, Iran's state-run PressTV reported."

Comment: According to this report, Russia and Iran have entered into a formal agreement for military cooperation, this is significant and very noteworthy. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran's poking at West heightens risks of military missteps
AP reports: "Rather than tangle with a stronger U.S. military, Iran is poking and prodding its Western antagonists in ways apparently designed to avoid triggering war but that nonetheless seem to heighten the risk of missteps and miscalculation that could lead to an armed conflict with global consequences."

Comment: I don't think anyone should underestimate the potential for this to spiral out of control.

Rumors of War - Persia

Trump says U.S. Navy 'destroyed' Iranian drone in Strait of Hormuz - Reuters
Reuters reports: "President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had 'destroyed' an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the ship, in the latest incident in the Gulf. Trump told an event in the White House that the drone had flown to within 1,000 yards (meters) of the USS Boxer."

Comment: This is becoming a shooting war. Fortunately, this time it's just unmanned drones...so far. Pray for peace. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Tensions rise as Iran speeds up enrichment, US sends troops
The AP reports: "Iran will surpass the uranium-stockpile limit set by its nuclear deal in the next 10 days, an official said Monday, raising pressure on Europeans trying to save the accord a year after the U.S. withdrawal lit the fuse for the heightened tensions now between Tehran and Washington. Hours later, the two countries appeared to approach a flashpoint when the Pentagon announced it was sending about 1,000 additional American troops to the Middle East to bolster security in the region in the face of what U.S. officials said is a growing threat from Iran."

Comment: Is this headed towards war? It's hard to imagine Iran suddenly returning to the table to negotiate a new deal with Trump. If that does not happen, then what is the alternative? 

Rumors of War - Persia

Stern words from Iran: US cannot 'expect to stay safe'
The AP reports: "Iran’s foreign minister warned the U.S. on Monday that it 'cannot expect to stay safe' after launching what he described as an economic war against Tehran, taking a hard-line stance amid a visit by Germany’s top diplomat seeking to defuse tensions. A stern-faced Mohammad Javad Zarif offered a series of threats over the ongoing tensions gripping the Persian Gulf. [...] Europe has yet to offer Iran a way to get around the newly imposed U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, a July 7 deadline — imposed by Iran — looms for Europe to find a way to save the unraveling deal. Otherwise, Iran has warned it will resume enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels."

Comment: Although the subject of Iran has dropped off the radar for most Americans, it remains a flashpoint for those in the national security community, who continue to see it as a situation that could easily spiral out of control. 

Rumors of War - Persia

U.S. sending 1,500 troops to Middle East over Iran tensions - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Pentagon will send an additional 1,500 troops to the Middle East to counter Iranian influence in the region, President Donald Trump said Friday. [...] Officials said the deployment will largely involve engineering capabilities, as well as surveillance and reconnaissance units and those involved with Patriot defense missiles. Their comments might indicate that no immediate plans for a U.S. ground invasion are under consideration."

Comment: It looks like this is a relatively small increase in forces designed to boost capabilities and readiness. Hopefully it will serve as a deterrent to Iran.

Rumors of War - Persia

US aircraft carrier seen as barometer of tensions with Iran
The AP reports: "So far, the Lincoln and its accompanying ships have yet to enter the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. It has been filmed by the U.S. Navy on Friday carrying out exercises with other American warships in the Arabian Sea, which is over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) away. [...] Iran has increasingly threatened to close the strait if it is unable to sell its own crude oil to the global market as a result of the U.S. pressure campaign following Washington’s withdrawal a year ago from the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. Any transit through the strait also carries the risk of a catastrophic mistake by either side spinning out of control."

Comment: In other words, a window of time is approaching in which there will be maximum opportunity for  miscalculation or error leading to conflict.

Rumors of War - Persia

Trump tells aides he does not want U.S. war with Iran - Reuters
Reuters reports: "U.S. President Donald Trump has told his top advisers he does not want to get the United States involved in a war with Iran, three U.S. officials said on Thursday. [...] But he has also made clear that he will protect U.S. interests in the region, one official said. U.S. intelligence showed heightened activity by Iran or its proxies that U.S. officials took as a threat against American targets in the region. "

Comment: It seems like the drumbeat of war had increased rather dramatically in the last week but now it seems like things may be cooling down. From a slow boil to a simmer perhaps? 

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran abandons parts of nuclear deal amid heightened Mideast tensions - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Iran said Wednesday it will stop complying with parts of the 2015 nuclear deal by surpassing the cap on enriched uranium and heavy water production. [...] Threats against U.S. military forces prompted the Pentagon to send an aircraft carrier strike force, B-52 bombers and a Marine expeditionary force to the Middle East. [...] Tensions related to Iran are also impacting other neighboring countries. This week, Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two oil pumping stations in Saudi Arabia, prompting Riyadh to strike back with more than a dozen airstrikes against rebels in Yemen. The pipeline attacks occurred a day after two Saudi oil tankers were targeted off the coast of the United Arab Emirates."

Comment: The European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal criticized the U.S. for withdrawing, saying that Iran was indeed abiding by the deal.  That is apparently no longer the case. Will the EU, Russia and China now join in "snap-back" sanctions on Iran? I think the "Iranian Crisis" has only just begun.

Rumors of War - Persia

U.S. deploying carrier, bombers to Middle East to deter Iran: Bolton - Reuters
Reuters reports: "The Trump administration is deploying a carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East in response to troubling 'indications and warnings' from Iran and to show the United States will retaliate with “unrelenting force” to any attack, national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday. [...] a U.S. official said the deployment has been ordered 'as a deterrence to what has been seen as potential preparations by Iranian forces and its proxies that may indicate possible attacks on U.S. forces in the region.' [...] Though he cited no specific Iranian activities that have raised new concerns, Iran has recently warned it would block the Strait of Hormuz if it was barred from using the strategic waterway."

Comment: This could be a significant development. Trump's transition from a neo-isolationist to a neocon interventionist could be complete.  I can't help but think that Bolton has had a huge influence in that regard. I think we should follow these developments very carefully.

Rumors of War - Persia

U.S. imposes new sanctions on Iran targeting defense program - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The United States imposed new sanctions on Iran on Friday, targeting people involved in nuclear and missile research programs, the U.S. Treasury Department announced. [...] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the sanctions are meant to deny the Iranian regime the ability to create weapons of mass destruction and 'all its outlaw activities.'"

Comment: The U.S. continues to amp up the pressure in Iran as Europe goes in the other direction. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Absent Iran takes center stage at Mideast talks in Poland - AP
The AP reports: "Although it is absent from the stage, Iran is nevertheless taking the spotlight at a Middle East security conference co-hosted by the United States and Poland that has highlighted deep divisions between the U.S. and some of its traditional allies. Amid uncertainty over its aims and questions about what it will deliver, the conference opened late Wednesday in Warsaw with some 60 nations in attendance. Yet, in an apparent test of U.S. influence and suspicions in Europe and elsewhere over the Trump administration’s intentions in Iran, many countries aren’t sending their top diplomats and will be represented at levels lower than their invited foreign ministers."

Comment: Could the Trump Administration be forming a "coalition of the willing" to attack Iran? 

Rumors of War - Persia

Benjamin Netanyahu to meet with Mike Pompeo as Iran becomes more defiant - UPI
UPI reports: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will fly to Brussels Monday to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to discuss regional developments. It comes as Iran shows new signs of strength and defiance, such as testing ballistic missiles and launching what it calls a radar-evading stealth ship."

Comment: While our media remains firmly focused on serving up a daily helping of fresh outrage it is worth diverting our attention to world affairs in general and events in Iran in particular.  There is cause for concern that the chances of conflict with Iran are higher now that in the recent past.

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran president warns of 'war situation' as sanctions resume
The AP reports: "The U.S. re-imposed all sanctions Monday on Iran that once were lifted under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, grinding further down on the Islamic Republic’s already-ailing economy in what President Hassan Rouhani described as a “war situation” now facing Tehran."

Comment: Well, there it is, the Iranian Nuclear Deal is officially over and sanctions have been re-imposed. Does it appear that Iran will now take corrective action? No, not really. What I'm not seeing is the Trump team signalling a way for Iran to back down gracefully, to save face, and get out of this. Trying to humiliate another country rarely works, especially with a country as proud as Iran. It would be wise to think carefully about strategy and tactics...and not just Twitter. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran vows revenge for parade attack that killed 29
UPI reports: "Iran warned the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel Monday that Tehran would take revenge for an attack on a military parade in Iran. The Saturday attack in southern Iran killed at least 29 people and injured 70, including military personnel and civilians spectators. The gunmen attempted to make their way to a grandstand that contained government officials. The Revolutionary Guard has accused Saudi Arabia of supporting the attack."

Comment: Whoever perpetrated this attack should be ashamed of themselves. It was indeed a cowardly act to attack civilians at a public parade. What were they thinking? This kind of thing does not suggest a regime in disarray. It doesn't undermine the trust in the government. To the contrary, heroic pictures of military personnel protecting women and children by shielding them with their own bodies only encourages support for the regime. Now Iran is lashing out at the likely suspects and they include the U.S. in that list. I would like to think that no matter how much the Trump team may dislike the Iran nuclear deal, they would never stoop so low. I think it more likely that the Saudis paid some mercenaries to do this with very little guidance as to strategy and tactics.

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran, Lebanon take steps against Israel nuclear 'threat'
UPI reports: "The Iranian government asked the United Nations Thursday to censure Israel due to what Tehran perceives a significant nuclear threat. [...] The letter also demanded the United Nations not only condemn Israel's threat, but also make the country join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and open its nuclear program to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. In Lebanon Thursday, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said his country possesses precision rockets that are capable of hitting targets in Israel."

Comment: I'm sure there is a proper word or phrase to describe the absurdity of Iran complaining to the United Nations that they fear a nuclear threat from Israel. How many times has Iran threatened to wipe Israel off the map?

Gog Alliance

Syria summit in Iran may decide Idlib military offensive
The AP reports: "The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey will meet in Tehran to discuss the war in Syria, with all eyes on a possible military offensive to retake the last rebel-held bastion of Idlib. The summit Friday, the third between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may determine whether diplomacy halts any military action."

Comment: The military alliance depicted in Ezekiel 38 is taking shape.

Rumors of War - Persia

Israel signals it could attack Iranian weaponry in Iraq | Reuters
Reuters reports: "Israel signaled on Monday that it could attack suspected Iranian military assets in Iraq, as it has done with scores of air strikes in war-torn Syria. Citing Iranian, Iraqi and Western sources, Reuters reported last week that Iran had transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Shi’ite allies in Iraq in recent months. Tehran and Baghdad formally denied that report. Israel sees in Iran’s regional expansion an attempt to open up new fronts against it. Israel has repeatedly launched attacks in Syria to prevent any entrenchment of Iranian forces helping Damascus in the war."

Report: U.S. tells Israel 'please leave Iraq to us' - Israel News - Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post reports: "US officials have warned Israel not to strike Iraq after officials signaled that the IDF could target Iranian military positions in the country. According to a report on Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, Washington asked Israel several weeks ago to not carry out any air-strikes in Iraq, weeks before reports surfaced that Tehran had deployed ballistic missiles capable of hitting Saudi Arabia and Israel."

Comment: I was away for the holiday weekend but did not want these reports to escape notice. I think this is a pretty significant development. Would Israel attack  Iranian forces in Iraq while Iraq is technically under the military protection of the U.S. and UN forces? What would it do to the close relationship between Israel and the U.S. if they did?