Wars & Rumors of War

Trump says US forces cornered IS leader in dead-end tunnel
The AP reports: "Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi , the shadowy leader of the Islamic State group who presided over its global jihad and became arguably the world’s most wanted man, died after U.S. special operators cornered him during a raid in Syria, President Donald Trump said Sunday. [...] The death of al-Baghdadi was a milestone in the fight against IS, which brutalized swaths of Syria and Iraq and sought to direct a global campaign from a self-declared “caliphate.” A yearslong campaign by American and allied forces led to the recapture of the group’s territorial holding, but its violent ideology has continued to inspire attacks."

Comment: This is a significant victory in the battle against Islamic terrorism. 

War

Saudi Arabia cuts oil output after Houthi drone attack; Pompeo blames Iran - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Saudi Arabia cut its oil output in half Saturday after Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a drone attack on two oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. A Yemeni military spokesman told the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency it was a "large-scale" attack with 10 drones that hit its targeted Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. [...] Though the rebels claimed responsibility, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo placed the blame squarely on Iran. "

Comment: The proxy war for regional dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran is getting serious. Score one for Iran. 

Wars & Rumors of War

US pulls out of Cold War-era nuclear treaty, blaming Russia - AP
The AP reports: "The United States announced Friday that it is pulling out of a landmark nuclear arms treaty with Russia, arguing that it should not be constrained by a deal Moscow is violating with “impunity” by deploying banned missiles. Democrats in Congress and some arms control advocates slammed the decision as opening the door to an arms race. [...] The Trump decision reflects his administration’s view that the arms treaty was an unacceptable obstacle to more forcefully confronting not only Russia but also China. China’s military has grown mightily since the treaty was signed, and the pact has prevented the U.S. from deploying weapons to counter those being developed in Beijing."

Comment: Well, there you go, the Cold War nuclear arms race is back on. The world has just become a much more dangerous place. 

King of the North - Gog Alliance - Doomed Damascus

Putin Welcomes U.S. Withdrawal From Syria as ‘Correct’ - NYT
The New York Times reports: "President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Thursday hailed the decision by President Trump to withdraw United States forces from Syria, calling it “correct” because the American troops were not needed. [...] The decision has been criticized, even among Republicans, as abandoning Kurdish allies in the face of a hostile Turkey and a still dangerous Islamic State, as well as leaving Syria open territory for the geopolitical ambitions of Russia and Iran."

Comment: I will leave it for the partisans in the U.S. to debate if Trump's move is in the best interest of U.S. national security. For our part, I think it's very clear that this move will be in the interests of Russia, Iran and Turkey and a strategic challenge to Israel. For the BP community, anything that boosts the Gog Alliance at the expense of Israel is a significant development and one worth noting.

Famine - Pestilence - War

Famine 'imminent' in Yemen as civil war drags on, U.N. official says - UPI
UPI reports: "Nearly half the Yemeni population relies entirely on humanitarian aid for survival and the country is on the verge of a widespread famine, a United Nations leader said Wednesday. [...] Yemen's civil war has so far killed at least 10,000 people and led to a humanitarian crisis of starvation and cholera."

Comment: This is a great tragedy. Strategically, I support Saudi Arabia in this proxy war against Iran. Iranian hegemony over the Middle East would be a far greater tragedy. Still, more can and should be done to get humanitarian assistance to civilians.

Famine - War

Key battle in Yemen's war risks tipping country into famine - AP
AP reports: "With American backing, the United Arab Emirates has resumed an all-out offensive aimed at capturing Yemen’s most vital port, Hodeida, where Shiite rebels are digging in to fight to the last man. Thousands of civilians are caught in the middle, trapped by minefields and barrages of mortars and airstrikes. If the array of Yemeni militias backed by the UAE takes the city, it would be their biggest victory against the rebels, known as Houthis, after a long stalemate in the three-year-old civil war. But the battle on the Red Sea coast also threatens to throw Yemen into outright famine."

Comment: Throughout history famine and war often go hand in hand. Yemen, it seems, has not escaped that pattern. 

War

North Korea calls for end of Korean War ahead of possible Mike Pompeo visit - UPI.com UPI reports: "North Korea is using a propaganda outlet that targets the South to promote the signing of a declaration to end the Korean War. The call for an end-of-war declaration comes ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's possible fourth trip to Pyongyang, Seoul Pyongyang News reported Thursday."

Comment: It's a bit sobering to realize that the Korean War never officially ended. There was a ceasefire agreement but no official peace treaty. Technically, the the peninsula is still at war. Perhaps the leaders would be wise to negotiate peace and conclude the war while they still have time. Events can always spiral out of control.

Wars & Rumors of War

U.N.: Up to 30,000 Islamic State members remain in Iraq, Syria - UPI.com
UPI reports: "As many as 30,000 members of the Islamic State terrorist group remain in Iraq and Syria, a U.N. report indicates. The report released Monday states that a core of between 20,000 and 30,000 IS members, including leadership and other branches, remains intact and distributed roughly equally between the two countries. [...] U.N. experts said the group -- also identified as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh -- rallied in the early parts of 2018 after being militarily defeated in Iraq and most of Syria the year prior and will continue to survive as a 'covert network' in both countries with supporters spread throughout Libya, Southeast Asia and West Africa."

Comment: How's the war against the Islamic State going? Well, according to this report, they staging something of a comeback after having been defeated in Iraq and most of Syria. I'm wondering how they are funded? I distinctly remember the allied effort to defeat them going after their funding and then as they lost territory they found their options and ability to strike back had greatly diminished. I wonder what's changed?

War

Taliban launches attack in Afghanistan; U.S. forces respond - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Taliban launched an attack Friday on one of Afghanistan's key cities, seizing buildings and exchanging fire with security forces during an air and ground battle that led to U.S. forces' assistance. [...] U.S. Forces Afghanistan spokesman Lt. Col. Martin O'Donnell said U.S. forces responded using attack helicopters and drones."

Comment: So in this unending Afghan War, the Taliban are once again staging a comeback? How many times have they been declared defeated only to return?  I wish this was more on the national agenda instead of the sensational issues we seem to be obsessed with. An aimless war that costs lives and treasure seems like it should be an issue up for discussion.

War

Top U.S. envoy to Seoul: Too early to end 1950-53 Korean War - UPI.com
UPI reports: "New U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Harry Harris said there must be "demonstrable moves" from North Korea toward denuclearization before any declaration of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War is made between the two sides. Harris, who held a news conference for local media on Thursday at the U.S. ambassador's residence, is making his views known only a few weeks after arriving in South Korea."

Comment: Itsn't it amazing to think that the Korean War is still going on, that it never officially ended? Sure, there was an armistice agreement, a ceasefire, but there was never a formal peace treaty ending the war.  It's kind of mind blowing.

War - Doomed Damascus

Syrian forces recapture Daraa, birthplace of Assad revolt - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Syrian forces recaptured Daraa, the southwestern Syrian city where the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad's regime was born in 2011, the government said Thursday. Assad's forces, along with Russian troops, entered the city after an agreement with rebels, who surrendered in exchange for amnesty or safe passage to other rebel-held areas."

Comment: It's always a fluid situation in war, but it does look like Syria and allies are wrapping things up. Damascus is looking pretty secure these days. Of course, we all know how quickly things can change. 

War

Taliban, Afghan soldiers clash in first attacks since holiday truce - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Taliban and Afghan soldiers clashed in Western Afghanistan Wednesday, just days after a temporary cease-fire for the Eid holiday ended. Taliban militants killed at least 30 Afghan National Army soldiers and police officers after the group ambushed a reinforcement convoy and stormed bases overnight in Badghis province, officials said."

Comment: How's the war in Afghanistan going? Well, the Taliban are proving to be very resilient. 

War

U.S. commander: More than 70 Taliban leaders killed this month - UPI.com
UPI reports: "U.S. forces killed more than 50 Taliban leaders in southern Afghanistan last week, a top commander said. Gen. John Nicholson said in a news conference U.S. Marines used rocket artillery to attack the militant leaders after tracking them to a meeting in Helmand province May 24. [...] Several Taliban governors, intelligence commanders and others in leadership were among the dead. [...] Officials said more than 500 airstrikes were conducted in Afghanistan last month, many targeting Taliban drug labs."

Comment: Have you been wondering how the war in Afghanistan is going? The Taliban are still there and so are the U.S. Marines. How about we give it another year? Maybe two?

War

South, North Korea declare commitment to full denuclearization, ending war - UPI.com
UPI reports: "As highly anticipated, the two leaders decided to seek a formal end to their state of war and establish a peace treaty through trilateral efforts with the United States or a four-way meeting including China. South and North Korea are technically still at war as their 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice signed by the U.S.-led United Nations Command, North Korea and China."

Comment: One of the most extraordinary things about this is the recognition that the two sides are technically still at war. The Korean War ended in an armistice agreement, a fancy term for a ceasefire, but without a formal peace treaty ending the war.  If you don't declare peace, then the war is still on. It would indeed be an historic event if Trump was able to gather all the parties together to officially end the Korean War.

War - Fearsome Events

3 killed by militant in separate attacks in southern France - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Three people were killed Friday and a dozen others were injured in separate attacks in southern France that authorities believe were motivated by terrorism. The gunman, who claimed to be affiliated with the Islamic State terror group, stormed a market in Trebes and took hostages. Police said two people shot inside, an employee and a customer, died from their injuries. The hostage taker was eventually killed by police."

Comment: One of the TV news analysts said that ISIS inspired terrorists will strike with more frequency now that ISIS is losing territory in the Middle East. 

War

Islamic State kills 27 Iraqi security personnel in Kirkuk - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Islamic State militants ambushed a convoy and killed at least 27 Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces fighters in Iraq, the militia said. The PMF said IS set up a fake checkpoint by disguising themselves as police officers and using poor weather conditions to carry out the ambush in Kirkuk province Sunday. [...] Iraqi forces including the PMF launched a military offensive to establish control of a mountainous area near Kirkuk to transport oil from Iraq to Iran."

Comment: Ok, so the Islamic State is still winning battles but not the war. Of more interest to me is the last line near the end of the report. Remember when everyone mocked President Trump for talking about his desire to "take the oil" and get something for the investment of American blood and treasure? Well, it looks like Iran has decided to follow that strategy. Iran is taking Iraq's oil. Where are the haters and the mockers now? I think it would be one of the greatest military failures in history if the United States allows Iran to control Iraq after this interminable war ends. What was the point of it all?

War

Iraqi government: Islamic State 'completely defeated' in country - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Iraq's prime minister announced Saturday that the country's defense forces completely liberated the nation from the Islamic State.[...]  Last month, Iraqi forces and Iranian-backed militias began a final campaign against the militants along the country's Syrian border. [...] In all, the Islamic State controlled more than 34,000 square miles from the Mediterranean coast to south of Baghdad. Rawa was the last liberated city since the Islamic State took control in 2014."

Comment: How's the war in Iraq going? Pretty well according to this report. Many questions remain to be answered after the celebrations. Can they hold the territory? Will the Islamic State regroup in Iraq or migrate to another country? Has IS been defeated only to allow Iran to basically take over Iraq?

War

Iraqi army takes Islamic State's last stronghold, Rawa - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Iraqi army said Friday it's retaken the town of Rawa, the last Islamic State stronghold in the country.[...]  With support from local militias and airstrikes by a U.S.-led coalition, forces entered Rawa Friday to little resistance, Iraqi commanders said. Friday afternoon the Iraqi army announced it had 'liberated Rawa completely.' [...] The Islamic State, which controlled one-third of Iraqi territory three years ago, is now reduced to a small part of Syria as its primary domain. It used to have Mosul, Fallujah and Tikrit as Iraqi strongholds."

Comment: The end of the Islamic State is near. One question, when all of the fighting is over in Syria, will all the foreign fighters peacefully depart? 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Moon, Trump agree to build up deterrence, urge North Korea to give up nukes - UPI.com UPI reports: "The presidents of South Korea and the United States agreed Tuesday to completely remove the limit on the payload of South Korean ballistic missiles and discuss Seoul's introduction of nuclear-powered submarines and other advanced weapons, Seoul officials said. [...] the discussion included Seoul's development or acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Nuclear-powered submarines are considered asymmetrical assets that can intercept North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missiles, but are currently prohibited under a nuclear pact between Seoul and Washington."

Comment: People like to say that China has the power to end the Korean nuclear crisis. I'm not entirely sure that's true. Young Kim has not shown the respect his father and grandfather had for China, either as a neighbor or a patron. Still, I'm sure that if there is one thing that China would seek to avoid is the continuation of a crisis that will increasingly turn South Korea into a formidable military threat. It is certainly in the interest of China to end this crisis if inaction means a nuclear-armed South Korea. 

War

Trump admin says current law permits new wars without Congress vote - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told Congress Monday that a 2001 authorization for war against terrorist groups provides adequate permission to continue military operations in several countries around the world. Since the death of four American soldiers in Niger this month, both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have begun to question the United States' longstanding foreign policy of conducting anti-terrorism military operations in foreign countries without Congressional approval. Such operations have been allowed since Congress approved the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists act on Sept. 14, 2001, just three days after the 9/11 attacks."

Comment:  I was going to point out how odd it is that we have come to accept the idea that the U.S. is now engaged in a long-term war with vague parameters about who/what/when/where and everyone seems fine with that...but then another terrorist attack happened. Honestly, I don't know what to think about it anymore. I know that generations of Americans, going back to the Founders', thought about war was a specific and well-defined thing, that the country would be at war with another country until victory was achieved. That was what war meant. In that context the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the authority to declare war. An open-ended war against a constantly changing adversary would have been incomprehensible to them, as would the idea of Congress giving the President a blank check to wage war. Yet, here we are.