Rumors of War

ZDNet -  Hacker modified drinking water chemical levels in a US city

ZDNet reports: "An unidentified hacker has accessed the computer systems for the water treatment facility in the city of Oldsmar, Florida, and has modified chemical levels to dangerous parameters. [...] Oldsmar city staff said that no tainted water was delivered to local residents as the attack was caught in time before any lye levels could be deployed. According to Sheriff Gualtieri, the hacker disconnected as soon as they modified the lye levels, and a human operator set the chemical level back to normal right away. Officials didn't attribute the attack to any specific hacker group or entity."

 See also:
NYT - ‘Dangerous Stuff’: Hackers Tried to Poison Water Supply of Florida Town
This report has a good summary of the international context with a focus on Iran.

Comment: Here we have a report of a confirmed cyberattack by an unknown actor. This attack is noteworthy for being an example of an attack that not only penetrated a protected system and accessed information, but also changed system controls that altered hardware settings and could have impacted the health and welfare of the citizens in the city. The attack was detected, not by an automated system, but by a human operator. The attacker's changes were corrected and no one was hurt in the incident.While media reports are emphasizing that this could have been a local hacker, it should also be noted that this could well have been a foreign hacker or a state-sponsored attack. A municipal utility is low-hanging fruit and represents an attractive target for a range of bad actors to test vulnerabilities and demonstrate proof-of-concept attacks.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

At least 20 killed in India-China Himalayan border dispute - UPI.com
UPI reports: "A decades-long border dispute between China and India in the Himalayas has turned deadly for the first time in nearly a half-century. [...] The western Himalayan border, where both countries fought the Sino-Indian War in 1962, had not seen a deadly conflict there since 1975, 45 years ago. Indian officials said there were casualties on both sides."

North Korea to deploy troops to demilitarized areas, restart drills in latest provocations - UPI.com
UPI reports: "North Korea announced Wednesday it would deploy troops to the Kaesong Industrial Zone and Mt. Kumgang tourist area, locations that were once the sites of joint economic ventures with South Korea, as Pyongyang continued to ratchet up tensions a day after it demolished an inter-Korean liaison office. "

Comment: Two news reports that suggest things area heating up in the East. First, when two nuclear powered countries start shooting at each other, we should take note.  China and India have been at war in the past and both have nuclear weapons and now there are reports of deadly skirmishes along the Himalayan border. Although the circumstances are not clear, the bottom line is, Indian troops died, so some kind of counter-attack or revenge attack is expected. Second, North Korea is throwing a tantrum. Yes, this does happen from time to time, but that fact does nothing to diminish the danger. Keep watching!

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Report: Chinese aircraft carrier could be deployed to 'protect' South China Sea 
UPI reports: "A Chinese aircraft carrier that recently entered the Taiwan Strait could be deployed to guard the South China Sea, Chinese state media said Monday. [...] Global Times said Monday the carrier is likely to be deployed to guard the South China Sea, where the country has been militarizing disputed islands."

Comment: The military progress China has made in just one generation is impressive.  I think they are on the verge of announcing their own Monroe Doctrine and declaring all of the South China Sea to be under their sovereign control. Will the U.S. risk WWIII to challenge that or accede to Chinese demands?

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia preparing new ballistic missiles -- including 'Satan-2'
UPI reports: "The Russian military is actively preparing and testing ballistic missiles in an effort to modernize its weapons arsenal -- including one that was fired for the first time Wednesday. [...] Russia is also planning at least five tests next year for its new liquid-fueled Sarmat, or Satan-2, nuclear missile -- which is equipped with multiple hypersonic warheads to evade defense systems."

Comment: The U.S. and Russia together account for most of the nuclear weapons in the world. Sure, other countries have them, but they might have a few hundred nuclear weapons. The superpowers have thousands. More than enough to wipe out all life on Earth many times over.  So, do they need more? Probably not, but they are getting more. This report offers details on the new weapons systems that Russia is fielding as they continue the nuclear arms race many thought ended with the Cold War.

Wars & Rumors of War

Trump says US forces cornered IS leader in dead-end tunnel
The AP reports: "Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi , the shadowy leader of the Islamic State group who presided over its global jihad and became arguably the world’s most wanted man, died after U.S. special operators cornered him during a raid in Syria, President Donald Trump said Sunday. [...] The death of al-Baghdadi was a milestone in the fight against IS, which brutalized swaths of Syria and Iraq and sought to direct a global campaign from a self-declared “caliphate.” A yearslong campaign by American and allied forces led to the recapture of the group’s territorial holding, but its violent ideology has continued to inspire attacks."

Comment: This is a significant victory in the battle against Islamic terrorism. 

Rumors of War - Doomed Damascus

VP Mike Pence: Turkey agrees to cease-fire in Syria, future 'safe zone' - UPI.com
UPI reports: "U.S. officials said Thursday Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to stop his offensive in Syria, signaling an end to a military campaign that has so far killed dozens of Kurdish fighters and drawn international condemnation."

Comment: This is good news for a change. I'm wondering if Turkish troops will withdraw from Syria or will they stay to monitor the new "safe zone" and thus carve out a chunk of Syria as a permanent Turkish colony?

Rumors of War - Doomed Damascus

United States imposes sanctions on Turkey; Erdogan calls for NATO help in Syria
UPI reports: "U.S. President Donald Trump imposed new sanctions against Turkish officials for their role in the country's military operation in Syria. [...] Nations in the European Union agreed Monday to halt exporting weapons to Turkey, saying they undermine stability and security in the region and hinders the Syrian peace process."

Comment: I'm not sure what to make of this. Trump withdrew to allow an Turkish invasion and now seems angry that the invasion happened? He has zero credibility and his leverage looks like sour grapes.

Rumors of War - Gog Alliance

Turkey launches air, land operations against Kurds in Syria - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Turkey launched air and land operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria on Wednesday, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said. On Wednesday afternoon, Turkey's Ministry of Defense announced the Turkish Armed Forces and the Syrian National Army launched a land operation east of the Euphrates River as part of the military operation."

Comment: I wonder if this is the start of a small incursion or a full-fledged invasion of northern Syria? the presence of Russia, Iranian and Turkish forces just across the border must be very disconcerting for Israel.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China's 70-year parade shows global ambition as HK protests
The AP reports: "Trucks carrying nuclear missiles designed to evade U.S. defenses, a supersonic attack drone and other products of a two-decade-old weapons development effort rolled through Beijing as soldiers marched past President Xi Jinping and other leaders on Tiananmen Square. [...] The display highlighted Beijing’s ambition for strategic influence to match its status as the second-largest global economy [...] Those strategic goals include displacing the United States as the Pacific region’s dominant power and enforcing potentially volatile claims to Taiwan, the South China Sea and other disputed territories."

Comment: I believe that it is China's aim to force the United States and Western powers to confront a terrible choice:  defend Taiwan and Hong Kong and risk nuclear war or capitulate to Chinese hegemony over Asia.

Rumors of War

Pakistani leader Imran Khan warns U.N. of 'bloodbath' in India-controlled Kashmir
UPI reports: "In his address at the United Nations General Assembly Friday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan warned of a potential "bloodbath" in Kashmir -- when the curfew is lifted and millions of Muslims clash with hundreds of thousands of Indian troops."

Comment: When two nuclear neighbors who have already been at war three times in the past start to edge toward another conflict, the world should take notice.

Rumors of War - Persia

Rouhani: Iran will further pull out of nuclear deal Thursday unless Europe buys Persian oil - UPI.com
 UPI reports: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tuesday that if European nation signatories to an Obama-era multinational nuclear deal don't agree by Thursday to buy Persian oil, Iran would further separate itself from commitments aimed at preventing it from acquiring a nuclear weapon."

Comment: The situation with Iran  continues to remain on a slow boil even as if fades from the mainstream news radar.

War - Doomed Damascus

Airstrikes hit near Turkish convoy in Syria, raising tension
The AP reports: "Airstrikes targeted a Turkish army convoy inside a rebel-held part of northwestern Syria on Monday, killing three civilians and wounding 12 others, the Turkish Defense Ministry said. Syria, however, said the Turkish convoy was carrying ammunition to rebels who have lost ground this month amid a government offensive to retake their last stronghold in the country. The incident ratcheted up tensions in the region, currently ground zero in Syria’s long-running civil war in which Turkish, Russian, U.S. and Iranian interests are fighting."

Comment: I find it interesting that Syria has largely dropped off our radar and yet, as the report makes clear, it remains a battlefield in which the armies of multiple countries (including the U.S.) are currently fighting. Do the American people realize they have soldiers fighting in Syria or is that lost amid reporting about Trump's latest Tweets?

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Chinese military buildup near Hong Kong stokes fears of intrusion
UPI reports: "China has moved armored personnel carriers to a stadium in Shenzhen, near the border with Hong Kong. Troops were seen carrying riot shields, batons and other weapons as they gathered around the city's Bay Sports Center and satellite imagery showed military vehicles on the sidelines."

Comment: I respect the Hong Kong protesters but I also feel sorry for them. The fate of Hong Kong was sealed when Great Britain ended colonial rule in 1997. Hong Kong is part of China now and it was only a matter of time before China began chipping away at the special status long enjoyed by the former British colony. The protestors began in opposition to the extradition law, which is now shelved, but they continued to protest and in hindsight, I think we will see that was a major miscalculation. By rioting and destroying property, they are forcing China to intervene. I suspect that once PLA troops patrol the streets of Hong Kong, they will never leave.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China, Pakistan slam India's move to change Kashmir's special status - Reuters
Reuters reports: "In a move to tighten its grip on Jammu and Kashmir, parts of which are claimed by Pakistan and China, India dropped a constitutional provision that allowed the country’s only Muslim-majority state to make its own laws. The changes imposed by Modi’s Hindu nationalist-led government are the most sweeping in the nearly 30 years that India has been battling a revolt in Kashmir. The government also broke up the state into two federally administered territories."

Comment: This is one of the most significant developments in quite some time. Kashmir is a flashpoint for conflict between nuclear powers and that kind of thing should always be on our radar. 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China blames United States for escalating military competition
UPI reports: "China claimed in its defense white paper published Wednesday the United States is 'undermining global stability.' The criticism of U.S. policy comes at a time when China has stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait and has slammed the United States for sending military ships to the South China Sea, a vast body of water Beijing has claimed as its own. [...] The paper is the first defense policy document of its kind that has been published since Chinese President Xi Jinping began to rule without term limits in 2017, according to CNN."

Comment: I've long maintained that the U.S. and China need not be enemies, but a belligerent attitude by both with guarantee conflict in the future.   

Rumors of War - Persia

Iran's poking at West heightens risks of military missteps
AP reports: "Rather than tangle with a stronger U.S. military, Iran is poking and prodding its Western antagonists in ways apparently designed to avoid triggering war but that nonetheless seem to heighten the risk of missteps and miscalculation that could lead to an armed conflict with global consequences."

Comment: I don't think anyone should underestimate the potential for this to spiral out of control.

Rumors of War - Persia

Trump says U.S. Navy 'destroyed' Iranian drone in Strait of Hormuz - Reuters
Reuters reports: "President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had 'destroyed' an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the ship, in the latest incident in the Gulf. Trump told an event in the White House that the drone had flown to within 1,000 yards (meters) of the USS Boxer."

Comment: This is becoming a shooting war. Fortunately, this time it's just unmanned drones...so far. Pray for peace. 

Rumors of War - King of the North

NATO gives Russia 5 weeks to destroy missiles violating INF Treaty
UPI reports: "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday gave Russia five weeks to destroy ground-launched missiles that violate a treaty with the United States banning certain short- and intermediate-range missiles. [...] He said if Russia doesn't comply with the warning, NATO's response will be 'defensive, measured and coordinated.' [...] 'There are no new U.S. missiles in Europe, but there are new Russian missiles in Europe,' he said in December. [...] In April, the Russian government said it severed contact with NATO. The relationship has been strained since Russia forcibly annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014. Tensions flared again last year when Russia captured Ukrainian soldiers and military ships in the Kerch Strait, a move Western governments said violated international law."

Comment: Russia is very good at spinning a counter-narrative to explain their actions. They say they are the aggrieved party, they are being merely defensive, reacting to actions from NATO and the United States. Yet the fact remains that NATO is a defensive alliance, it has not seized territory or expanded its arsenal, while Russia has done those things. Here we are in the 21st Century and European land has fallen to conquest and it is Russia that has done that, not NATO.  Crimea is now under Russian control and 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory is under Russian military occupation. If anything, the allied response to this territorial expansion in the heart of Europe has been extremely restrained, given the lessons of WWI and WWII. In fact, some might say that NATO has failed in performing its core mission of stopping Russian expansion. It is past time for NATO to assert itself.

Rumors of War - Persia

Tensions rise as Iran speeds up enrichment, US sends troops
The AP reports: "Iran will surpass the uranium-stockpile limit set by its nuclear deal in the next 10 days, an official said Monday, raising pressure on Europeans trying to save the accord a year after the U.S. withdrawal lit the fuse for the heightened tensions now between Tehran and Washington. Hours later, the two countries appeared to approach a flashpoint when the Pentagon announced it was sending about 1,000 additional American troops to the Middle East to bolster security in the region in the face of what U.S. officials said is a growing threat from Iran."

Comment: Is this headed towards war? It's hard to imagine Iran suddenly returning to the table to negotiate a new deal with Trump. If that does not happen, then what is the alternative? 

Rumors of War - Persia

Stern words from Iran: US cannot 'expect to stay safe'
The AP reports: "Iran’s foreign minister warned the U.S. on Monday that it 'cannot expect to stay safe' after launching what he described as an economic war against Tehran, taking a hard-line stance amid a visit by Germany’s top diplomat seeking to defuse tensions. A stern-faced Mohammad Javad Zarif offered a series of threats over the ongoing tensions gripping the Persian Gulf. [...] Europe has yet to offer Iran a way to get around the newly imposed U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, a July 7 deadline — imposed by Iran — looms for Europe to find a way to save the unraveling deal. Otherwise, Iran has warned it will resume enriching uranium closer to weapons-grade levels."

Comment: Although the subject of Iran has dropped off the radar for most Americans, it remains a flashpoint for those in the national security community, who continue to see it as a situation that could easily spiral out of control.