Rumors of War - Kings of the East

At least 20 killed in India-China Himalayan border dispute - UPI.com
UPI reports: "A decades-long border dispute between China and India in the Himalayas has turned deadly for the first time in nearly a half-century. [...] The western Himalayan border, where both countries fought the Sino-Indian War in 1962, had not seen a deadly conflict there since 1975, 45 years ago. Indian officials said there were casualties on both sides."

North Korea to deploy troops to demilitarized areas, restart drills in latest provocations - UPI.com
UPI reports: "North Korea announced Wednesday it would deploy troops to the Kaesong Industrial Zone and Mt. Kumgang tourist area, locations that were once the sites of joint economic ventures with South Korea, as Pyongyang continued to ratchet up tensions a day after it demolished an inter-Korean liaison office. "

Comment: Two news reports that suggest things area heating up in the East. First, when two nuclear powered countries start shooting at each other, we should take note.  China and India have been at war in the past and both have nuclear weapons and now there are reports of deadly skirmishes along the Himalayan border. Although the circumstances are not clear, the bottom line is, Indian troops died, so some kind of counter-attack or revenge attack is expected. Second, North Korea is throwing a tantrum. Yes, this does happen from time to time, but that fact does nothing to diminish the danger. Keep watching!

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Report: Chinese aircraft carrier could be deployed to 'protect' South China Sea 
UPI reports: "A Chinese aircraft carrier that recently entered the Taiwan Strait could be deployed to guard the South China Sea, Chinese state media said Monday. [...] Global Times said Monday the carrier is likely to be deployed to guard the South China Sea, where the country has been militarizing disputed islands."

Comment: The military progress China has made in just one generation is impressive.  I think they are on the verge of announcing their own Monroe Doctrine and declaring all of the South China Sea to be under their sovereign control. Will the U.S. risk WWIII to challenge that or accede to Chinese demands?

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China's 70-year parade shows global ambition as HK protests
The AP reports: "Trucks carrying nuclear missiles designed to evade U.S. defenses, a supersonic attack drone and other products of a two-decade-old weapons development effort rolled through Beijing as soldiers marched past President Xi Jinping and other leaders on Tiananmen Square. [...] The display highlighted Beijing’s ambition for strategic influence to match its status as the second-largest global economy [...] Those strategic goals include displacing the United States as the Pacific region’s dominant power and enforcing potentially volatile claims to Taiwan, the South China Sea and other disputed territories."

Comment: I believe that it is China's aim to force the United States and Western powers to confront a terrible choice:  defend Taiwan and Hong Kong and risk nuclear war or capitulate to Chinese hegemony over Asia.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Chinese military buildup near Hong Kong stokes fears of intrusion
UPI reports: "China has moved armored personnel carriers to a stadium in Shenzhen, near the border with Hong Kong. Troops were seen carrying riot shields, batons and other weapons as they gathered around the city's Bay Sports Center and satellite imagery showed military vehicles on the sidelines."

Comment: I respect the Hong Kong protesters but I also feel sorry for them. The fate of Hong Kong was sealed when Great Britain ended colonial rule in 1997. Hong Kong is part of China now and it was only a matter of time before China began chipping away at the special status long enjoyed by the former British colony. The protestors began in opposition to the extradition law, which is now shelved, but they continued to protest and in hindsight, I think we will see that was a major miscalculation. By rioting and destroying property, they are forcing China to intervene. I suspect that once PLA troops patrol the streets of Hong Kong, they will never leave.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China, Pakistan slam India's move to change Kashmir's special status - Reuters
Reuters reports: "In a move to tighten its grip on Jammu and Kashmir, parts of which are claimed by Pakistan and China, India dropped a constitutional provision that allowed the country’s only Muslim-majority state to make its own laws. The changes imposed by Modi’s Hindu nationalist-led government are the most sweeping in the nearly 30 years that India has been battling a revolt in Kashmir. The government also broke up the state into two federally administered territories."

Comment: This is one of the most significant developments in quite some time. Kashmir is a flashpoint for conflict between nuclear powers and that kind of thing should always be on our radar. 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China blames United States for escalating military competition
UPI reports: "China claimed in its defense white paper published Wednesday the United States is 'undermining global stability.' The criticism of U.S. policy comes at a time when China has stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait and has slammed the United States for sending military ships to the South China Sea, a vast body of water Beijing has claimed as its own. [...] The paper is the first defense policy document of its kind that has been published since Chinese President Xi Jinping began to rule without term limits in 2017, according to CNN."

Comment: I've long maintained that the U.S. and China need not be enemies, but a belligerent attitude by both with guarantee conflict in the future.   

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China could ‘mass produce’ guided missile destroyers, analyst says - UPI.com
UPI reports: "China could be adding more guided missile destroyers to its fleet following the launch of two Type 052D guided missile destroyers on Friday. Chinese analysts told state tabloid Global Times on Sunday Beijing wants to add more destroyers at a time when friction between China and the United States is rising over trade and maritime security."

Comment: It now seems clear that China is intent on claiming all of Asia within their sphere of influence. The only real question is, will the rest of the great powers accede to this or will they fight for Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and the rest? This is a slow building crisis and the moment of decision nears.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Report: China to fortify South China Sea island with ‘logistics base’
UPI reports: "China is adding more facilities to Woody Island, the largest of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The construction of a "strategic service and logistics base" on Woody Island, composed of two islets, will be undertaken by Sansha city on China's Hainan Island, the South China Morning Post reported."

Comment: As we continue to monitor developments in the South China Sea we can note this report that suggests a linkage with the ongoing trade dispute with the United States. I think the author is off-base and does not quite realize the influence the PLA Navy and the current modernization drive as being a separate issue from the trade dispute with Trump. Long after Trump leaves office and regardless of the outcome of the trade issue China will continue their long-term strategy of claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Analysts: Japan wants military tension with South Korea to expand military power - UPI.com
UPI reports:  "Japan wants to escalate military tension with South Korea to create an excuse to revise its anti-war constitution to strengthen its military power, analysts said. Diplomatic tensions between two neighboring countries have heightened in a series of incidents involving Japanese patrol planes and South Korean warships since last month. [...] Abe and right-wing groups have been in pursuit of strengthening Japan's military power and the U.S.-Japan alliance against the emergence of China and North Korean threats, according to Hankyoreh."

Comment: I think this report is purely sensational and is way off base in suggesting actual military tension between Japan and South Korea. I'll grant that there may be political grandstanding going on, attempts to score points with a domestic audience, but I've seen nothing that would make me think that those two countries are on the brink of war. This is truly a "rumor" of war and nothing more than a rumor. 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China's modernized military could threaten Taiwan, U.S. - UPI.com
UPI reports: "China has rapidly modernized its military and increased defense spending over the past two decades, posing a security threat to Asia, and Taiwan in particular, a U.S. military intelligence report said. The report released Tuesday by the Defense Intelligence Agency said China saw a nearly threefold increase in defense spending from 2002 to 2018. [...] A dispute over control of Taiwan has been a driving factor in the increase of modernization."

Comment: There may have been a time in the late 20th Century when the U.S. would have gone to war against China to defend Taiwan but that time has long past. It's increasingly likely that should China resort to force Taiwan will stand alone.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

AP - Report: China is driving use of armed drones in Middle East
The AP reports: "The report by the Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, found that more and more Mideast countries have acquired armed drones, either by importing them, such as Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, or by building them domestically like Israel, Iran and Turkey. China has won sales in the Middle East and elsewhere by offering drones — otherwise known as UAVs or unmanned aerial vehicles — at lower prices and without the political conditions attached by the United States."

Comment: This report highlights the growing connection China has to the Middle East and suggests this role as an arms supplier will increase conflict in the region by changing the ways countries deploy air power. The interest in the region by eastern military powers has long been anticipated by the BP community and it is both alarming and exciting to see these links being firmly established and reported on in mainstream news media.

Kings of the East

China offers competing vision of international security at Xiangshan Forum:
UPI reports: "China is wooing countries with an alternative vision of security partnerships across Asia at the eighth Beijing Xiangshan Forum, where more than 500 representatives from 67 countries are in attendance. Chinese organizers of the security conference said Wednesday China is 'proposing a new security partnership' that is inclusive and not challenging 'existing alliances' among nations in the region, state newspaper People's Daily reported.:"

Comment: Reading between the lines here it would seem they are offering a rival vision that does indeed challenge existing alliances. 

Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia includes China in biggest war games in decades
UPI reports: "Russia began its war games -- the largest show of military force since the height of the Cold War nearly four decades ago -- Tuesday, amid heightened tensions with the United States. [...] About 3,200 Chinese troops, more than 900 pieces of weaponry and 30 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters will participate in joint training to conduct fire strike and counterattacks, the Chinese Defense Ministry said. China's participation will enhance its counterattack abilities and reinforce ties with Russia, Chinese government officials said Tuesday."

Comment:  Most great powers stage war games on a yearly basis, so this is nothing new, but the addition of China does indeed make this noteworthy. There was a time when Russia and China were more competitive but that has changed greatly over the last decade or so. Their mutual anti-American sentiment seems to have formed a strong bond between them but I wonder, is it too late to undermine that alliance?

Kings of the East

China’s Xi Jinping to visit UAE, South Africa in state visit - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Chinese President Xi Jinping is to visit four countries in the Middle East and Africa, following the signing of documents related to Beijing's One Belt, One Road Initiative. Xi's visit was made public on the Chinese foreign ministry's website on Thursday and the schedule includes stopovers in the United Arab Emirates, Senegal, Rwanda and South Africa."

Comment: China's ambitious plan to revitalize the ancient Silk Road trade routes is showing progress. 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

India to introduce ICBM to strategic forces - UPI.com
UPI reports: "India is planning to induct its latest intercontinental ballistic missile into strategic forces, according to multiple press reports. Agni-V, the fifth missile in a series, is a long-range projectile that could bring into range targets across China, Defenseworld.net reported Monday. The ballistic missile was tested in June for the sixth time, is nuclear capable and has a striking distance of 3,100 miles, according to India TV News. [...] India is one of a handful of countries that have retained long-range missiles, a list that includes the United States, China, Russia, France and North Korea."

Comment: Your move China.  Whatever happens with North Korean disarmament, the fact remains that the world is set on a course of nuclear proliferation and not much is being done to stop that trend. We currently have a system where bad actors get nukes and those countries that play by the rules don't. We need to turn that upside down.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

U.S. rescinds China's invitation to Rim of the Pacific military drill - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The U.S. Department of Defense Wednesday rescinded China's invitation to participate in an international maritime exercise due to its actions in the South China Sea. Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Logan said the Defense Department has withdrawn its invitation to the Chinese military to participate in June's Rim of the Pacific naval exercise alongside about two dozen other nations. [...] China has been invited to the biannual military drill since 2014, and the statement said the decision to revoke China's invitation was an initial response to Beijing's South China Sea activities."

Comment: Trumps administration started with much optimism about U.S.-China relations. It seems the honeymoon is over. 

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

China, India have increased military spending, researchers say - UPI.com
UPI reports: "India has been increasing military spending, and the cause is China, according to experts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Researchers said in a report released Wednesday that despite a recent diplomatic charm offensive China and India are not scaling back on military reinforcements at their border, the South China Morning Post reported."

Comment: Nothing like a regional arms race among nuclear powers to alarm the neighbors. 

Kings of the East

Japan signals interest in China's One Belt, One Road initiative - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Tokyo and Beijing discussed shared concerns, including the imposition of high U.S. tariffs on imported steel, a measure that would affect Chinese and Japanese producers. Wang also invited the top Japanese diplomat to consider participating in China's One Belt One Road network of global trade. Kono said Japan would be willing to pursue projects within the network that 'meet the standards of the international community.'"

Comment: Trump's neo-isolationism will impair U.S. leadership but is a boon to Asian economic development. China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative is one of the most ambitious and creative development projects since the Marshall Plan. It has the potential to anchor China firmly at the center of Mideast, European and Asian economic security.

Rumors of War

ABC - China's new defence chief visits Russia to 'let the Americans know' about their deep military ties
ABC.NET reports: "China's new defence minister has said his visit to Russia is a signal to the United States about the increasingly close military ties between Moscow and Beijing. [...] Moscow and Beijing have forged what they described as a 'strategic partnership,' expressing their shared opposition to the 'unipolar' world — the term they use to describe perceived US global domination. As part of their burgeoning military cooperation, Moscow and Beijing have conducted joint military manoeuvrers, including exercises in the South China Sea and last summer's joint navy drills in the Baltics."

Comment: At a time when the new American president seems intent on undermining the institutions of the post-WWII order a new counter-order is rising. China have ostensibly fully subscribed to the post-war world order, they are full members of the UN Security Council and other major international bodies, but they are also in accord on their opposition to American leadership. I suppose it's fair to say that they are not so much opposed the the post-war system, it's just that they want to be the leaders of the world system and not the United States. At some point, such profound differences will no longer be contained by diplomacy and will spill over into overt conflict. This has become a very dangerous time in world history.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

U.S. strike group enters South China Sea as China deploys aircraft carrier - UPI.com
UPI reports: "China's deployment of its aircraft carrier to waters near Hainan Island is taking place as the U.S. Navy's Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group enters the South China Sea, according to a Hong Kong press report. [...] China has claimed as much as 90 percent of international waters as its own within what it calls the 'nine-dash line' that extends more than 1,200 miles from the Chinese mainland."

Comment: Let that last sentence sink in, "China has claimed as much as 90 percent of international waters as its own," and you see the crux of the problem. The laws, traditions and customs that govern the seas have been well established by sea-going nations and they are, in short, nothing new. China knows full well that they are claiming more than they are entitled to under international law. They have adopted the simple and arrogant attitude of a thug: yeah, who's gonna stop me?