Wednesday, January 16, 2008

My Way News - Russia Warns Kosovo on Independence
AP reports: "Russia warned Kosovo's leaders Wednesday that if they declare independence the territory will never become a member of the United Nations or other international political institutions."

Comment: I wouldn't be surprised if Kosovo's declaration of independence becomes the first international crisis of the new year. The West thinks of Kosovo as a resolved crisis, something NATO took care of in the 1990's. At that time, Russia was much weaker, Boris Yeltsin was no Czar Vlad Putin, and so the Western Alliance could do what it willed with Serbia, Russia's ally. Things have changed, and Putin is far more likely to draw a line in the sand and come to the defense of Serbia.

Let me leave you with one more thought to ponder. Take a look at this statement from the AP report:
Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said that the future of Kosovo is a Security Council issue - not an EU issue - and said council members should prepare a roadmap that would "create dynamics that in our view would lead to a negotiated outcome. "We are respectful of the interest of the European Union to enhance its role in Kosovo, but that should not replace an international effort to find a mutually acceptable solution," he said.
If we see this issue as a contest between the influence of the U.N. and the European Union, then perhaps this may be a tipping point in the ascendancy of the EU. Still, the role of Russia is the wild card here. Is Putin willing to go to war with the EU over Kosovo?

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