Rumors of War - King of the North

Russia conducts second test of intercontinental ballistic missile Sarmat - UPI.com:
UPI reports: "Russia conducted another test of its intercontinental ballistic Sarmat missile, the country's defense ministry said Friday. [...] The ministry said that the new ICBM missile, which could hit aircraft carriers, destroyers and cruisers, will replace the Soviet-era Voevoda. Russia's state-run news agency TASS said on Thursday that the Sarmat missile is expected to go operational in the Uzhur-based strategic missile force division in 2021."

Comment: Welcome to the new Cold War. 

Covenant With Many

Q&A: Why Bolton's pick adds to obstacles for US Mideast plan - AP
AP reports: "The list of obstacles to a long-awaited U.S. plan for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal has grown longer in recent days. Contentious relations between the Trump administration and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are bound to deteriorate further with incoming National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has said Palestinians would be better off being absorbed by Egypt and Jordan than having their own state. Meanwhile, U.S.-backed efforts to negotiate a deal sidelining Hamas in the Gaza Strip appear to have collapsed, raising new questions about the territory said to be at the center of any U.S. plan. Coupled with Abbas’ refusal to engage with the Trump administration, these developments exacerbate fundamental challenges to any proposals coming from Washington."

Comment: This is a good politically correct overview of where things stand right now in the peace process. 

Pestilence

Global antibiotic use soaring as concerns about resistance rise - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Overuse of antibiotics is one of the main causes of the dangerous health threats posed by antibiotic resistance -- when the drugs are no longer effective against the diseases they were designed to fight. Yet new research finds that antibiotic use by people rose 39 percent worldwide between 2000 and 2015, adding to the growing threat of antibiotic resistance, scientists say."

Comment: This is a significant issue, I'm glad it's getting more press attention. 

Wickedness

French police eye anti-Semitism in Holocaust survivor's death - UPI.com
UPI reports: "French authorities said Monday they will investigate the slaying of an 85-year-old Holocaust survivor in Paris as a possible anti-Semitic crime. Authorities found the body of Mireille Knoll, who lived alone in a Paris apartment, inside her residence after a fire on Friday night, The Guardian reported. An autopsy revealed Knoll sustained multiple stab wounds before the fire. [...] Knoll escaped the roundup of 13,000 Jews in Paris to Nazi death camps in 1942, the BBC reported. She previously complained to police about a neighbor who threatened to set her home on fire."

Comment: Hopefully the two suspects will be persecuted to the fullest extent of the law. 

Rumors of War - Persia

Saudis intercept seven ballistic missiles fired at cities by Houthis in Yemen - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Saudi Arabia announced that it intercepted seven ballistic missiles fired at Riyadh, its capital, and other major cities, the largest barrage in its three-year war in Yemen.[...] The escalation in the conflict, which on Sunday clearly targeted civilian populations in Saudi Arabia, could reinforce Riyadh's demands to curtail the influence of Iran in the region. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan condemned the missile attacks on Monday, pledging to stand in solidarity with the Saudis."

Comment: The real danger is that the Saudi vs. Iranian war for regional domination could draw in the other major powers and engulf the region in a major war.

Persecution

AP - Nigerian police: Boko Haram to free 1 more kidnapped girl
The AP reports: "Islamic extremists who abducted 111 girls last month in Nigeria’s northern village of Dapchi are releasing one more girl, Nigeria’s police chief said Saturday. Leah Sharibu, 15, was held back on Wednesday when 105 of her classmates were freed by Boko Haram extremists after negotiations. She remained a prisoner because she is Christian and refused to convert to Islam, her mother said. [...] It wasn’t clear when she would be released. [...] The Dapchi school kidnappings are thought to have been carried out by a Boko Haram splinter group aligned with the Islamic State group."

Comment: Please join me in praying for the release of Leah Sharibu, a 15 year-old girl held by the Boko Haram militants.

War - Fearsome Events

3 killed by militant in separate attacks in southern France - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Three people were killed Friday and a dozen others were injured in separate attacks in southern France that authorities believe were motivated by terrorism. The gunman, who claimed to be affiliated with the Islamic State terror group, stormed a market in Trebes and took hostages. Police said two people shot inside, an employee and a customer, died from their injuries. The hostage taker was eventually killed by police."

Comment: One of the TV news analysts said that ISIS inspired terrorists will strike with more frequency now that ISIS is losing territory in the Middle East. 

Rumors of War

VOA - Trump Launches Action Toward Imposing Tariffs Against Chinese Imports
VOA News reports: "U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday, initiating actions to consider imposing tariffs on a long list of nearly 1,300 Chinese imported products worth about $60 billion. The move could limit China’s ability to invest in the U.S. technology industry, setting the stage for a possible trade war with Beijing. [...] The prospect of a trade war sent markets plummeting, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 724 points, almost 3 percent, its biggest drop in six weeks."

China plans tariffs on $3B worth of U.S. goods after Trump order - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The Chinese government plans to impose tariffs on $3 billion worth of imports of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's tariff announcement Thursday. China's Commerce Ministry said it compiled a list of 120 products worth about $1 billion including fresh fruit and wine that will face a 15 precent tariff it both countries fail to resolve trade differences 'within a stipulated time.'"

Comment: I'm posting this under the "Rumors of War" category because trade wars have a tendency to sour relations between countries and set the stage for actual wars.

Persecution

AP - Lone Nigerian captive refused to convert for Boko Haram
The AP reports: "The mother of the only Nigerian schoolgirl still in Boko Haram captivity after the extremists released 104 classmates said Thursday her daughter was blocked from boarding the vehicle to freedom with her classmates and told to convert to Islam. Rebecca Sharibu told The Associated Press that 15-year-old Leah refused. 'She was about to board the vehicle that was to bring them back. Then Boko Haram said she should convert,' the mother said. 'Her friends said they tried to convince her but she said she will not convert to Islam. Boko Haram said since she will not convert to Islam she should remain behind. That was how they left her. She is alone.' Leah Sharibu asked her departing Muslim classmates to pray for her."

Comment: Please join me in praying for Leah Sharibu, for her safety and her quick release from captivity.

Global Government - Ten Kings

African countries create largest free trade area since WTO - UPI.com
UPI reports: "The leaders of 44 African countries signed a historic trade agreement Wednesday to create the largest free trade area since the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995. The countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement during the 10th Extraordinary Session of African Union Heads of State in Kigali, Rwanda. Ten African Union countries, including Nigeria, refused to sign the deal. The agreement eliminates certain barriers to trade, including tariffs and import quotas, in order to boost commerce and the economy. Each of the signed countries would need to ratify the deal before the bloc is formally created."

Comment: This is an interesting development. I know there are certain BP commentators who suggest that eventually the world will be divided up into ten trade blocs. This will allow for a level of economic integration that could presage true political integration on a global scale. This seems unlikely given how popular nationalist sentiment remains today but nonetheless, that's what they say will happen. I'm keeping an open mind on this one.

Rumors of War - Persia

Israel says it was behind 2007 airstrike on Syrian nuclear facility - UPI.com
UPI reports: "For the first time, the Israeli government said Wednesday it was behind a 2007 bombing of a Syrian nuclear facility -- a disclosure intended to send a message that it won't accept a nuclear Iran. Israeli intelligence minister Yisrael Katz directly warned Tehran that Israel would not allow it to develop and possess nuclear weapons."

Comment: There are times when I realize how desensitized I am to the situation after something happens to shock me back to the reality of how far things have progressed. We are living in a time when Iranian military forces are deployed to a state directly bordering Israel. This is one of those things we may be aware of but the full impact of it is registering less than it should. Iran has emerged from the nuclear deal with a renewed confidence and a bold program for regional hegemony. We know that Israel and Saudi Arabia are ready and willing to challenge Iran every step of the way. The danger is that this war for regional supremacy could erupt into a much larger war at any moment. American troops, Russian troops, Turks and Iranians all operating inside Syria while next door Israel watches nervously. What could possibly go wrong?

Persecution

Court: Pakistani Christians Must Reveal Religion to Vote or Apply for Jobs - Christianity Today
Christianity Today reports: "Pakistan’s citizens must now declare their religion when applying for identity documents, or if they want to work in government or register to vote, Islamabad’s High Court ruled this month. [...] Their true religion must now also be visible on birth certificates, ID cards, voters’ lists, and passports. Those who apply for a job in the judiciary, armed forces, civil services, and other government jobs also need to submit an affidavit declaring the Khatm-i-Naboowat (that Muhammad was the final prophet), stated Justice Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui in his ruling, as reported by Pakistani newspaper Dawn."

Comment: In order to apply for a job or vote you have to list your religion....in an officially Muslim country. No problems there, right? This is a sad development and will harm many non-Muslims in Pakistan. Please join me in praying for the persecuted church in Pakistan.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

North Korea's Kim Jong Un willing to talk about denuclearization - UPI.com
UPI reports: "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is willing to discuss denuclearization with the United States and halt its nuclear and missile provocations while dialogue is ongoing, a Seoul official said Tuesday. Debriefing on his two-day trip to Pyongyang, South Korean President Moon Jae-in's security adviser Chung Eui-yong told reporters that the North Korean regime 'clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize.'"

Comment: Very interesting development. Is Kim merely stalling for time or is he sincerely interested in denuclearization? I think his likely strategy is to say he will give up his weapons if the U.S. withdraws from the Korean peninsula. This puts the U.S on the defensive and allows him to say he is demonstrating flexibility and a willingness to negotiate.

Rumors of War - King of the North

Putin: New Russian nukes are answer to U.S. leaving arms treaty - UPI.com
UPI reports: "Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday his country has developed supersonic nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in the world, and are 'invulnerable to enemy interception.' During his state of the union address to Russian lawmakers in Moscow, Putin said the weapons cannot be tracked by anti-missile systems. [...] The Russian president said the new nuclear weapons were successfully tested late last year -- and said tests are ongoing for underwater drones that can carry nuclear warheads. [...] Putin's address came less than three weeks before Russia's presidential election. He is an overwhelming favorite to win another term on March 18."

Comment: This was a brilliant campaign speech by a man who doesn't really need to campaign to win his election. How strange is that? Beneath the bluster is the reality that Russia and every other great power will continue to innovate in the area of arms and weapons. It's profitable and also great PR for the domestic audience.  Putin did a great job of spinning a narrative of Russia as a victim, as a righteous underdog, fighting back against America. This is a time-tested electoral strategy. When JFK ran against Nixon in 1960 he claimed there was a missile gap between the U.S. and Russia and that the Russians were winning the arms race. Kennedy knew it wasn't true, but voters ate it up.

Am I alarmed by these new claims by Putin about the power of Russian weapons? No. Cruise missiles are now considered old tech and everyone is innovating on the basic design and pushing the envelope on speed and stealth.  Underwater drones are indeed new-ish, but the real innovation will be deploying them in an active battlespace in a coordinated fashion, either independently or using swarm tactics, and of course, weaponizing them with explosives up to the nuclear level. As far as most analysts can tell, this capability has yet to be demonstrated by Russia. Underwater drones used in this manner may be new but the U.S. Navy has long had nuclear depth-charges for anti-submarine warfare, so again, not that new.

The real concern here is that the world is moving very quickly past the global war on terrorism and into a new phase of great power conflict. We have been lulled by history into a false sense of security, the notion that wars between countries with established armies and massive firepower is over.  It's not over.  We are now seeing the military establishments of Russia, the United States and China actively preparing for great power conflict.

Rumors of War - Kings of the East

Trump announces tariffs on steel, aluminum imports; China cries foul - UPI.com
UPI reports: "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he would place tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States. Speaking at a White House meeting with business leaders, Trump said he would officially impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff for aluminum next week. [...] Chinese officials condemned the prospects of U.S. tariffs ahead of the decision Thursday. [...] Trump has said the tariffs would help U.S. businesses in those sectors. 'I want to keep prices down, but I also want to make sure that we have a steel industry and an aluminum industry, and we do need that for national defense,' Trump has said.  'If we ever have a conflict, we don't want to be buying the steel from a country that we're fighting, because somehow that doesn't work very well.'"

Comment: I don't normally share economic news, but I'm making an exception in this case for two reasons. First, there is a well established link between trade wars and actual wars. Many historians have blamed protectionist policies implemented during the Great Depression for souring relations between countries and contributing to the outbreak of WWII. Second, note that among the reasons for this decision, Trump explicitly lists likely war with a major importer, namely China. Is Trump preparing for war with China or merely bringing trade policy in line with national security requirements? Or both? Time will tell.