Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Rumors of War - Persia

Donald Trump withdraws U.S. from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - UPI.com
UPI reports: "President Donald Trump said Tuesday he is withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, ending months of speculation on how he planned to handle what he described as 'one of the worst deals in history.' [...] Trump said the United States would no longer abide by the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, four days before a Saturday deadline to decide whether to recertify the 2015 pact. As part of withdrawing from the pact, Trump said the United States 'will be instituting the highest level of economic sanctions' on Iran. This includes sanctions against any country that helps Iran with its nuclear program."

Comment: This hardly comes as a surprise to any who have followed what Trump has said about the deal but it still is a stunning development that will have far-reaching consequences. 

On the one had, critics of the deal are correct that Iran has not behaved like a country constrained by international agreements. Their efforts in the regional war with Saudi Arabia for hegemony in the Middle East have increased and not decreased since the deal was announced and Iranian militias are setting up permanent bases inside Syria. In short, the deal set the stage for a more ambitious and militant Iran.

On the other hand, defenders of the deal are correct when they note that it only addressed the nuclear program and not Iran's wider behavior. Iran has not violated the terms of the deal. Now that the U.S. has reneged on the deal Iran is free to resume industrial production of enriched uranium as well as continue their other efforts. This could lead to direct conflict. Will that happen? Early indications are the Iran plans to abide by the deal as long as the other signatories continue to pay Iran for compliance. The state of play has been severely disrupted and the Mideast has once again been plunged into uncertainty. Stay tuned!

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