Monday, October 22, 2018

Rumors of War

Trump confirms U.S. to abandon nuclear arms treaty with Russia - UPI
UPI reports: "President Donald Trump on Saturday said the United States will pull out of a decades-long nuclear deal signed between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed between former President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, bans all land-based cruise missiles with a range between 310 and 3,417 miles. Before a campaign rally in Nevada, Trump told reporters unless other countries quit violating the INF, the United States will terminate the agreement. [...] The New York Times reported on Friday the Trump administration will tell Russian leaders next week about the plan to exit the landmark treaty, partly to enable the United States to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific."

Russia condemns U.S. plan to withdraw from INF treaty - UPI
UPI reports: "Russia condemned U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to pull out of a decades-long nuclear deal signed between the two countries during the Cold War. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Russia's state-run Tass news agency it would be a 'very dangerous step' for the United States to back out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. [...] Ryabkov told Sputnik that Russia would adopt a number of retaliatory measures if the United States continues to unilaterally withdraw from agreements."

Comment: From what I understand, the Russian violations had been well documented under the Obama Administration and so this move makes sense. It's no less alarming for that, but it makes sense as a negotiating tactic. I think it unlikely that Russia really wants to end the treaty and so we might expect this to lead to some serious negotiating to salvage the treaty. Time will tell. As the article hints, China is a new strategic reality that did not exist when the treaty was signed in 1987 and that will no doubt play a part in determining the outcome.

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