Monday, July 13, 2015

Rumors of War - Iran

My Way News - Diplomats: Iran nuclear agreement likely Tuesday
My Way News reports: "An Iran nuclear agreement appeared likely within hours, diplomats said late Monday after a day in which American and Iranian negotiators appeared to be struggling to clear final obstacles and looking like they'd miss their fourth deadline in less than two weeks. [...] The proposed pact would impose long-term and verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear program and provide the Islamic Republic tens of billions of dollars in relief from international sanctions."

Comment: This will be a bad deal, that outcome is simply inescapable.  Why? When this all started the goal was to prevent Iran from being in a position to build a nuclear bomb. Iran was able to change this goal over the long period of negotiations by letting the normal process of negotiations reach their logical conclusion. In a negotiation, all sides give ground and compromise until a mutually agreed solution is reached. We are now nearing that end stage in which the final deal emerges. The deal will leave Iran with working centrifuges, enriched uranium, and the infrastructure and expertise to resume an active nuclear program at some point in the future. Sanctions will also be lifted and trade deals will then allow an influx of capital that Iran can devote to all their economic and military plans. This deal cannot be described as a deal that ended Iran's nuclear program. At best, it can only be described as a deal that put their nuclear program on hold for a period of time. Is that a win? I suppose it depends on how you spin it. The U.S. and Iran will call it a win. I'm sure Israel and Saudi Arabia will use other terms to describe it. 

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